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Sorry baby
We call it like we see it in Chicago


All right then - the White Sox are bad.

Not quite as bad as last year's edition - at their current pace, they'd end up something like 50-112. It's still awful. I have heard people grumbling about a Blue Jays team that won 91 games in a single season. These White Sox are going to need two seasons to match them. If they can.

Has any team ever lost 233 games in a two year span? Has anyone even come close? 

We know no one's lost 121 games since the 1899 Cleveland Spiders went 20-134, but here's the thing - there aren't that many teams that have lost 112 games in a single season.

Well, the Detroit Tigers have, twice in fact (2003 and 2019) in 2002-03 the Tigers lost 106 and 119 games. That's not 233 losses, but it's pretty close. 

The Baltimore Orioles were also comprehensively terrible just a few years ago, losing 115 games in 2018 and 108 the following year. The Orioles of recent vintage have actually overtaken the Phillies as the franchise that has had the most 90 loss seasons (the Orioles now lead, 41 to 40). Even so, they've never been as bad as these White Sox promise to be.

How about the A's? They lost 112 games themselves just two years ago, and back in the Days of Yore they they were quite a bit worse than that. More than a century ago, Connie Mack couldn't afford to pay his players so he sold them to other teams. The A's lost 109 times in 1915 and 117 times the following year. That's not 233 losses either, but it was probably even worse. With the shorter schedule, they went 79-226 over the two years. That's .259 ball and that's quite a bit worse than the .280 clip of the 2024-25 White Sox.

What about the Mets, famous and adored almost on account of their legendary badness? But after losing 120 games in their first season, they managed to lose just 111 in Year Two. They went 91-231 (.282) over those first two seasons - a fraction better than these White Sox! - and that is indeed the modern bar that the White Sox will either crawl over. Or stumble upon, however it works out. 

It gets more difficult to find teams that lost this many games as we go back beyond those Mets, and the schedule shortens to 154 games. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates of the early 1950s were notoriously terrible - they bottomed out at 42-112 in 1952, with 92-216 their worst two year total. Playing .299 ball for two years is grotesque and awful, but still not as bad as these White Sox. (I think we can safely ignore the 23-113 mark they posted in 1890, before they were the Pirates, back when Allegheny was still separate from Pittsburgh.)

The Boston Braves seemed to be inching their way to respectability in the early 1920s - then quite out of the blue they went 38-115 in 1935. Well, signing fat 40 year old sluggers is seldom a winning strategy. But that awful season isn't even part of the Braves worst two year period, which bottoms out with their 96-208 mark in 1911-12.

The Washington Senators (first in war, first in peace, last in the American League) went 38-113 back in 1904, when Walter Johnson was just a 16 year old Kansas farm boy. It's part of their worst two year run, as they went 81- 207 in 1903-04, and their .281 winning percentage is actually a shade worse than that of the 1962-63 Mets. But still better than these White Sox.

And that's it - none of the other twenty-two franchises have ever lost 112 games in a season. It's slightly interesting that this List of the Inept is mostly populated by proud, old franchises fallen on very tough times. The Mets are the only team here that's part of the post 1960s expansion eras, although the 2025 Colorado Rockies look determined to join them. 

And now I'm reeling in horror at the thought of what I've done. Does this have Reverse Jinx written all over it? Have I unwittingly set the table for a sweep by the visitors this weekend? 

Oh, that way madness lies. Let me shun that.

For one thing, the White Sox really shouldn't be this bad. Okay, no one should be this bad - but the thing that leaps out when you look at their 2025 season is their uncanny knack at losing the close games. The White Sox have gone 4-20 in one-run games, and I promise you, there's a lot of Simple Bad Luck involved when that happens to your team.

Matchups

Fri 20 June - Martin (2-7, 3.79) vs Turnbull (1-0, 2.08)
Sat 21 June - Civale (1-3, 4.67) vs Berrios (2-3, 3.81)
Sun 22 June - S.Guy (?-?, ?.??) vs Bassitt (7-3, 3.75)
White Sox at Toronto, June 20-22 | 75 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
92-93 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#461980) #
No mention of the Pope? C'mon!

Martin just hit the IL so it looks like a bullpen night for the White Sox.

MLBTR has a piece up on Benintendi and Robert Jr. as trade pieces, so I'll be watching them closely this weekend. As solid as Lukes has been, LF is still an obvious spot for the Jays to potentially improve at the deadline. They have been getting nothing from the position all year - .215/.322/.309 with 4HR.
GabrielSyme - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#461983) #
I wouldn't be opposed to an active trade deadline that makes some major roster shifts, but as things stand, it would be silly to add another outfielder. Springer, Varsho, Santander, Barger and Lukes all either will get or deserve regular playing time in the outfield, and there's a ridiculous amount of depth at the position beyond those guys. Barger will probably move to 3B once guys are back from injury, but we just don't need another piece there unless we manage to ship someone out.
Nigel - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#461984) #
The allure and reality of Robert may be two different things. He’s been replacement level for the past year and a half. I’m not sure what the trade deadline market will be for him. He’s a guy that might be a smart reclamation gamble for 2026 and forward but I’m not sure he’s a 2025 playoff team upgrade. Definitely interesting.
pooks137 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#461986) #
Today could be a reliever-fest for both sides tonight.

The Sox out tonight's starter Martin on the IL today, calling up two AA SP to make their debuts in Wikelman Gonzalez and Jake Palisch.

Palisch, a LHP, is actually stretched out and starting in AA currently, last with 85 pitches on the 14th. He'd make the most sense to start if they were so brave.

Wikelman Gonzalez had 4 AA starts to begin the year, but has been pitching in short relief in AAA in 1-2 inning stints for his last 12 outings.

The White Sox emptied their bullpen yesterday in a DH, using 8 reliever. Tyler Alexander is their only MLB fresh arm.

Seems like an opportune time for the Jays' hitters to go to town on a vulnerable pitching staff like they did weeks ago at home vs the Athletics.
John Northey - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#461987) #
For fun, what is the next level of ugliness? Worst 2 years ever for a franchise. AL East, ex-Expos, and Tigers & Mariners (for fun).
  • Jays: 1979-1977: 107-216, only other 100+ loss season was 1978, 95 the worst since
  • Expos/Nations: 107-217 either 1969-2022 or 1969-1976 take your pick.
  • NYY: 1908-1912: 101-205, never lost 100 since 1912 (1990 the closest at 95 losses)
  • Red Sox: 1932-1926: 89-218-1, 1965 the last time they lost 100
  • O's/Brown's: 2018-1939: 90-226-2, lost 100+ twice since then
  • Rays: 2002-2006: 116-207, 2001 the only other time they lost 100 in a season.
  • Tigers: 2003-2019: 90-233.
  • Mariners: 1978-1980: 115-207-1, Yep, the Mariners worst isn't as bad as the Jays worst, but their best is still shy of making the World Series.
I also looked at the A's (1916-2023 for most losses 86-229-1, 1916-1919 for worst win% at 72-221-1), the franchise has lost 100 18 times which might explain the constant moving (Philly-KC-Oakland-Sacramento-Las Vegas maybe) despite having so many stars (Reggie Jackson is 10th in WAR as an A with 48.1). Just had to as I knew they'd be ugly.
pooks137 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#461989) #
Robert is making 15 mil this year in his final guaranteed year with two 20 mil '26 & '27 team options to come.

He'd be more of an expensive Gimenez-type gamble with more outs and lesser term.

He's also probably of less value to the Jays than other teams because his primary position in CF is less value to them with a theoretically healthy Varsho.
John Northey - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#461990) #
The Jays corner OF slots have been bad this year - LF has an 85 wRC+, RF a 106 (for super-ugly Cleveland RF is at 52, KC 44, Pittsburgh LF is at 30 wRC+, Atlanta 54). So if Atlanta wants to sneak back into the race they have a massive hole to fill in LF. Cleveland might want an OF too.

Jays clearly are hunting for pitching/pitching/pitching. Yes, LF/RF have been weak but with Santander coming back eventually and Springer around one of those slots will be full with the DH full too. So LH: Lukes-Roden-Robertson; RH: Schneider, Straw; SW: Clase will be fighting it out for the LF slot. with Barger in RF often if everyone is healthy (Clement at 3B). I could see all the kids being sent down and keeping Lukes-Straw up as backups (speed/defense, L/R combo) along with Schneider (RH bat can cover 2B/LF, 3B/1B in emergency). Roden-Robertson-Clase haven't shown anywhere near enough to justify keeping them up (OPS+ Of 58-3-68 respectively). Schneider hasn't either (60 OPS+, 86 sOPS+ since being called back up) but his flexibility helps. No question Varsho returning will drastically help the OF, Santander not so much unless he gets back to his 2024 level (133 OPS+) instead of his 2025 (61).

So the lineup (when healthy) is Kirk-Vlad-Gimenez-Bo-Clement-Santander-Varsho-Barger (C-1B-2B-SS-3B-LF-CF-RF) with Springer at DH (he seems to like/thrive in it 132 wRC+, Santander doesn't 54 wRC+ - both over 100 PA this year). Bench of Heineman, Schneider, Straw, Lukes - not ideal, but works.
uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#461991) #
I could see the upside interest in a guy like Robert (especially given the Gimenez and Straw plays)....though tbh i think Robert's fallen off defensively too, so it wouldn't quite be the same "bet on legit elite defense and hope the bat bounces back to at least good enough" play as those two were.

But I struggle to see Benintendi as an upgrade over Lukes in any way - vRHP, vLHP, or defensively. Probably a downgrade tbh.
Nigel - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#461992) #
Robert feels like a guy that the Yankees trade some of their overhyped prospects for (i.e magic beans) and then magically he turns back into the 4 WAR+ player that he was a few years ago.
92-93 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#461993) #
On the Cubs broadcast right now they are talking about how important power is in the playoffs.
John Northey - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#461994) #
Rotation and Pen are a heck of a lot harder to nail down.
  • Rotation: Gausman-Bassett-Berrios are set, but if healthy last 2 are probably Manoah-Scherzer, but that is a heck of an assumption. Francis, Lauer, Turnbull are the alternatives (Francis IL right now), with Macko trying to step up (3 IP 4 R last time out 4 BB 4 SO 4 H) but not there. Lauer has earned a shot at losing his slot (last 5 games 19 IP 9 H 3 R/ER 1 HR 6 BB 20 SO) - lifetime he has a 98 ERA+ mostly as a starter for SD & Mil. If he can be near that 98 he'd be a solid #4/5 starter.
  • Bullpen: Hoffman-Rodriguez-Little-Fluharty are locks, Garcia-Sandlin locks when healthy, Green-Fisher-Schultz have all shown hope at times, Bruihl is here, Burr is IL, Lucas is AAA depth, and that covers the 40 man options.
I suspect the Jays will look for a solid setup guy to add more depth to the pen as injuries happen so you want as much depth as humanly possible. If an ace level starter or solid #1/2 guy is able to be had the Jays should grab him ideally by dealing a few of the 1001 mid 20's OF'ers on the roster, but odds are it'll take a LOT more.
pooks137 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#461996) #
The Jays corner OF slots have been bad this year - LF has an 85 wRC+, RF a 106

I would imagine the team aggregate offense in LF is being brought down by Roden's awful April and mostly empty more recent spot starts by Davis Schneider there against the the run LH SPs.

Similarly, Santander's share of RF starts are weighing down Springer/Barger/Lukes contributions.

With Clement starting daily and Barger getting most of the starts in RF, LF is realistically the only place to make a true upgrade.

And considering the plethora of cheap and fungible potentially league average or above options in Roden, Lukes, Robertson, etc the Jays have there with a crunch for 26-man slots, it probably only makes sense to spend prospect capital on a LF upgrade if you are truly acquiring a 120-130 wRC+ bat.

hypobole - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#461998) #
"Seems like an opportune time for the Jays' hitters to go to town on a vulnerable pitching staff like they did weeks ago at home vs the Athletics."

Dovetails nicely with what I was about to post. Something momentous and Jays related should happen at Baseball Reference shortly. Was thinking hopefully by months end, but just maybe by the end of this weekend? Ideas?
92-93 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#461999) #
A positive pythag?
SK in NJ - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#462000) #
Robert would be a good buy low pickup, IMO. It would be more of an upside play rather than someone you can confidently expect big numbers from, but I know I'd rather have Robert batting in a playoff game or pennant race over a Lukes/Schneider platoon.
hypobole - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#462002) #
I'm talking something from about 25 years ago,
GabrielSyme - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#462003) #
Not going to do the math, but 100 million in attendance? That, or positive run differential for the franchise.
uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#462004) #
2yr Stats 2024-25

vRHP

Lukes (30): 209pa, 130wrc+
Santander (30): 644pa, 117wrc+
Springer (35): 670pa, 110wrc+
Benintendi (30): 555pa, 103wrc+
Clase (23): 107pa, 101wrc+
Varsho (28): 490pa, 100wrc+
Schneider (26): 328pa, 90wrc+
Robert (27): 515pa, 71wrc+
Roden (25): 90pa, 65wrc+
Straw (31): 73pa, 58wrc+

vLHP

Santander (30): 230pa, 107wrc+
Varsho (28): 123pa, 104wrc+
Straw (31): 62pa, 100wrc+
Robert (27): 174pa, 88wrc+
Springer (35): 215pa, 87wrc+
Benintendi (30): 159pa, 76wrc+
Lukes (30): 25pa, 62wrc+
Schneider (26): 175pa, 60wrc+
Clase (23): 49pa, 31wrc+
Roden (25): 13pa, 42wrc+



Some sense in trying for Roberts even short term as he's been not completely terrible vs LHP at least, even these last couple years of struggle. So short term platoon with Lukes and then hope he finds his fulltime game again at some point.

in the short term i think i'd still rather get a legit lefty-masher to pair with Lukes, but if you think Robert can ever bounce back to near what he was in the longterm, then the just ok short term fit might still be worth it.

Benintendi is poor defensively along with that noodle bat. He's a career 104wrc+ 1.5war/650 player, but he's declined to pure replacement level the past few years as he's aged. The boston hype machine glow will never completely disappear from him tho.
uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#462005) #
Lukes and Sandlin activated.

Robertson and Bruihl optioned.
Magpie - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#462008) #
Something momentous and Jays related should happen at Baseball Reference shortly.

Well, Bo Bichette should be bumping Shannon Stewart off the WAR leaderboard.

Best I got!
uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#462009) #
Shi Davidi
@ShiDavidi
·
26m
Nathan Lukes and Nick Sandlin both back from IL for the Blue Jays, Will Robertson and Justin Bruihl optioned to triple-A Buffalo to make room.

Shi Davidi
@ShiDavidi
·
12m
A series of Blue Jays injury updates, via manager John Schneider:

▪️Daulton Varsho ran the bases yesterday and “felt good,” aiming for rehab games next week;

▪️ Yimi Garcia threw a live BP yesterday, looking at a minor-league game Monday in Florida;


Shi Davidi
@ShiDavidi
·
13m
▪️ Bowden Francis had a cortisone shot in right shoulder earlier this week. No throwing 3-4 days more;

▪️ Anthony Santander still throwing only, no swings yet;

▪️ Ryan Burr pitchin for triple-A Buffalo tomorrow;

▪️ Alan Roden still day to day with swelling in right knee.
uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#462010) #
speaking of Shannon Stewart, he struck me a while ago as a decent potential comp for Clase.
Magpie - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#462011) #
Not going to do the math, but 100 million in attendance? That, or positive run differential for the franchise.

Can confirm that the franchise is well past 100 million, and despite the overall losing record (but just 20 games or so below .500) does have a positive run differential.
Glevin - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#462012) #
And considering the plethora of cheap and fungible potentially league average or above options in Roden, Lukes, Robertson, etc the Jays have there with a crunch for 26-man slots, it probably only makes sense to spend prospect capital on a LF upgrade if you are truly acquiring a 120-130 wRC+ bat."

Absolutely. Robert doesn't make sense. I can see trading for a lefty masher seperately but Robert isn't that either. LF has been bad but also has a lot of depth and upside. Jays offense VS RHP will get better if they ever stop playing Clement every single game which you'd think Varsho and Santander back would force them to but Schneider hasn't sat him once in weeks so who knows. By far biggest need is frontline starter.
knuckeler - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#462013) #
"On the Cubs broadcast right now they are talking about how important power is in the playoffs."

I would totally agree with them, it seems painfully obvious to me if you want a good year all you have to do is hit Homeruns.

It doesn't matter if you hit only .220 or strike out more than once a game if you look at all the successful teams they hit Homeruns.
What has been killing the Blue Jays all year? Homeruns

They have been winning more lately despite mediocre pitching and why is that? Homeruns

When the Jays were good that was with Bautista and Encarnacion hitting Homeruns

Yankees were great till recently this year but what was carrying them? Homeruns

TB seems to always have the Blue jays number usually because of timely homeruns.

The last 3 world series winners, (LA, Texas and Houston), all finished in the top 4 in their respective playoff runs.

It's pretty obvious homeruns carry the day when up against good pitching and it gets difficult to string hits together all you need is a walk and or ( as Buck used to say), a bloop and a blast to win the game.

That's why I was saying earlier in the year we needed more homeruns despite winning some ball games without them.

It's very clear to me it's easier to build a winning team around homeruns than with out.


hypobole - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#462014) #
I was going to give the answer earlier, but thought, no, I'll wait for Magpie.

About 25 years ago, Shannon Stewart entered the Jays all time leaderboard, and climbed the ranks. Over the years he's been slowly getting bumped down and now sits at 24th of 24 with 18.7 career WAR as a Blue Jay.

Bo is entering this weekend with 1.2 WAR on the season and 18.6 career. A red hot weekend might do it, but barring anything catastrophic, Bo should finally bump Shannon off that final spot on the team page in fairly short order.
uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#462016) #
ah I finally found the multi-splits tool on fangraphs again.


June vRHP

SS Bichette 49pa 41wrc+
RF Barger 45pa 178wrc+
1B Guerrero 45pa 149wrc+
C Kirk 43pa 247wrc+
DH Springer 41pa 126wrc+
3B Clement 42pa 76wrc+
2B Gimenez 37pa 148wrc+
CF Clase 32pa 67wrc+
LF Lukes 19pa 48wrc+

UT Roden 17pa 102wrc+
OF Straw 9pa -100wrc+
IF Schneider 8pa 4wrc+
C Heineman 10pa 152wrc+

UT Robertson 10pa -18wrc+


June vLHP

SS Bichette 23pa 210wrc+
3B Barger 13pa 94wrc+
1B Guerrero 21pa 163wrc+
C Kirk 21pa 43wrc+
DH Springer 22pa -42wrc+
2B Clement 22pa 239wrc+
LF Schneider 20pa 128wrc+
CF Straw 18pa 70wrc+
RF Clase 12pa -37wrc+

UT Robertson 2pa 194wrc+
OF Roden 2pa 194wrc+
IF Gimenez 9pa -64wrc+
C Heineman 9pa 290wrc+
pooks137 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#462018) #
Bowden Francis had a cortisone shot in right shoulder earlier this week. No throwing 3-4 days more;

This update gives me more confidence that Francis' shoulder impingement reports of 2-3 weeks of pitching through shoulder discomfort was real and not just a phantom IL cover story after this disastrous 4th inning in his last start giving 5 free passes on BBs and HBPs.

While cortisone shots to joints are pretty bog standard in both the pro sports and civilian world, I don't think the Jays would go so far to do a sham one, unless the entire procedure was an outright lie.

IIRC, it was Staph infection and a septic joint from a simple cortisone shot that effectively ended Jesse Litsch's career many years ago.

pooks137 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#462019) #
Litsch suffered a setback with his injured right shoulder early in 2012 training camp, and was shut down because of inflammation. He visited surgeon Dr. James Andrews for a full diagnosis that confirmed the inflammation and didn't find any structural damage. Litsch received a platelet-rich plasmas (PRP) injection to help with the healing process. The injection caused an unexpected serious infection, and Litsch was not allowed to throw for six weeks after undergoing emergency surgery. The infection sidelined him for the entire 2012 season. Wikipedia

Looks like I saw mistaken about Litsch's shoulder infection, but a PRP injection is close enough.

SK in NJ - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#462020) #
Clement is not sitting until Santander comes back, and even then he probably won’t. I think John Schneider has broken me. I’m tapping out. Clement is playing everyday for the rest of the season regardless of split or type of pitcher. Acceptance will free me.
pooks137 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#462021) #
vs LHP Schneider (26): 175pa, 60wrc+

It's still only about a third to half a full season's worth of PAs, but it really makes one wonder why Davis Schneider is still on the team starting against LHP besides the fact that he seems to be the only RHH AAA OF this side of Jonatan Clase.

BlueJayWay - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#462023) #
The White Sox have gone 4-20 in one-run games
I noticed that earlier today. I don't know what's crazier: that record, or the fact they've played 24 one run games already
BlueJayWay - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#462024) #
Actually just looked it up and the Jays themselves have played 21 of those, so maybe it's not as crazy as that. But that record sure is.
Magpie - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#462026) #
I don't know what's crazier: that [4-20] record, or the fact they've played 24 one run games already

It's the record. Historically, roughly 30% of all games are decided by one run, so we would expect everyone to have played about 22 of them by now.

But the White Sox are playing .167 ball in one-run games, and no team in Recorded History has been worse. Only one team in history has also been below .200 in one-run games. The 1935 Boston Braves - (holy crap, I mentioned them already!) - went 7-31 (.184) in one-run games.

The normal effect of one-run games is to pull everyone towards .500 - we would expect a team of the quality of the White Sox to go about 10-14 in one-run games.
Magpie - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#462028) #
Some odd facts about one-run games:

Most played, single season: 75 (1971 Houston Astros.
Most wins: 42 (1978 San Francisco Giants)
Most Losses: 44 (1968 Chicago White Sox)
Best winning percentage: 766 (2016 Texas Rangers, went 36-11)
Worst winning percentage: .184 (1935 Boston Braves, went 7-31)
dalimon5 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#462029) #
I'd prefer this FO wait for someone like Josh Naylor to become available who can DH while Santander goes to the OF and Barger to 3B. Probably easier to resign him as well.
uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#462030) #
of all the complaints about this team, I gotta say the complaints about playing top-30 WAR player in the league (both on the year total and in June only) Ernie Clement are the funniest to me.
greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#462032) #
Great catch by Lukes in LF running back towards the wall.
uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#462033) #
just a bit of colour on why some guys are more worth investing franchise money in than others.

It was good to see Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out to catch the ceremonial first pitch tonight on the #BlueJays' Pride Night from Melanie King Gavin, who was representing The 519.

That's typically a job for bottom-roster guys, so this was a good night to see the face of the franchise.

— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) June 20, 2025
BlueJayWay - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#462035) #
So Scherzer's back soon 
scottt - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#462036) #
Pretty brutal start so far.
Glevin - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#462037) #
of all the complaints about this team, I gotta say the complaints about playing top-30 WAR player in the league (both on the year total and in June only) Ernie Clement are the funniest to me."

Reason #500 why WAR isn't a great stat on its own. He's objectively one of the worst hitters in baseball against RHP and shouldn't be playing against them every day. It doesn't matter how great he's been against LHP, it doesn't mean he should play against righties.

Clase should be in minors once Varsho is back. He has a lot of skills but is still so raw and probably needs to play everyday to improve his skills. There's a lot to dream on but still a lot of work to do.
uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#462038) #
this fill in start was always going to be needed. but it woudl have been easier to take if we hadn't made Francis start his last time through.

the only difference to the other starters would have been Berrios going on 4 days rest instead of 5, Bassit going on 5 days rest instead of 6, Gausman going on 4 days rest instead of 5, and lauer going on 5 days rest instead of 6. Then Turnbull would have gone yesterday 6 days after his last outing, and Berrios would have gone today on 4 days rest.
uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#462039) #
"He's objectively one of the worst hitters in baseball against RHP"

this is the first year that he's had any issues with RHP, and those issues were mostly confined to April.
92-93 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#462040) #
Benintendi and Robert Jr. look pretty good tbh
92-93 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#462041) #
So the difference would have been all 3 starters the team cares about getting less rest, and one of them twice?

Again - you don't need to agree with it, but you can at least understand why the team did it instead of beating the same horse repeatedly.
Gerry - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#462042) #
This was not on my bingo card.
uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#462043) #
you say that as if it's at all normal or understandable for teams to force bad pitchers into their rotations in order to keep all their actual starters on 5 or 6 days rest.

greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#462044) #
Varsho/Straw and Springer would have made those crucial missed outfield plays in centre and right field, I think.
92-93 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#462045) #
I had a feeling this might happen when I logged into Sportsnet and it said "Watch as the Jays take on the lowly WhiteSox".
Glevin - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#462046) #
this is the first year that he's had any issues with RHP, and those issues were mostly confined to April."

His career WRC+ against RHP is 79 which also means he shouldn't be playing everyday against RHP.
Marc Hulet - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#462047) #
This is on management... Turnbull looked terrible in the minors and having no length in the pen to sop up that mess is just inexcusable. They completely thought the Sox would just roll over.

Hitters haven't shown up either.

Classic early 2025 Jays game.
uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#462048) #
The pen is also extra burnt, of course, becasue they kept forcing Francis into the rotation instead of keeping the rotation on regular normal rest.
Glevin - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#462049) #
Agree with Marc on this. It's just hoping for the best against all evidence . Turnbull was awful in the minors because his stuff was terrible. Maybe you bring him up because you have to, pitch him in some low leverage situations to see if you can get his fastball up but you can't just go "well, he's been awful but maybe today he won't be so let's start him."
Magpie - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#462050) #
I had a feeling this might happen when I logged into Sportsnet and it said "Watch as the Jays take on the lowly WhiteSox".

I thought it was my fault for mocking them so mercilessly...
pooks137 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#462051) #
There's some Schrodinger's swingman going on here because Spencer Turnbull the mop up man is the type that is needed to recover from the experience of Spencer Turnbull the starter.
scottt - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#462052) #
Berrios has made 32 starts every year. That is considered a full year.
The other 2 made 31 starts last year. That's better than the Yankees.
Rodon 32 starts, Cortes 30, Stroman 29, Gil 29.
It's just that the Jays are short one pitcher this year.

I won't ever bother looking because I know the other teams in the division haven't had guys they rolled out every 5 days over the full year.
Nigel - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#462053) #
This was clearly on starting Clement v a RH:). (Just a joke - really). Clase has been really poor defensively since he’s been a Jay. He’d be low on my list of the numerous AAAA/MLB OFs in terms of future value.
scottt - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#462054) #
Turnbull giving up 3 runs in 2 innings was bad but the disaster was Fluharty allowing 4 in the next frame.
He's on a bad roll, 4 of his last 5 outings were bad. Just 18 strikes on 35 pitches.
pooks137 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#462055) #
John Schneider mentioned that Clase's speed made him stand out above all the other Buffalo boys OF candidates in the postgame press conference last night.

Clase obviously outranks Robertson currently as he was dispatched today.

Clase also has youth on his side, as he's 2-3 years younger than the Roden/Schneider/Loperfido guys.

It's unfortunate though that Clase is out of options in 2026, making youth and development not on his side pragmatically.
Nigel - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#462056) #
I understand all of that pooks, but Clase is the classic example of conflating physical tools that should translate into good defense and actual good defense. He does have time on his side but he shouldn’t be in Toronto right now. The Mariners reached the same conclusion.
pooks137 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#462057) #
Clase's CF defense getting exposed tonight for sure.

He looks like I thought Springer would've filling in CF for a night with Straw & Clase down against a slugging DBacks team last series.
uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#462058) #
Clase' speed still likely makes him a good corner OF defensively.

and so far his bat has been as good as any of his competition's - and they don't even get asked to play CF.
John Northey - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#462059) #
See Kyle Gibson opted out of his contract with the Rays - maybe dump Turnbull and sign Gibson. 4 AAA games for the Rays, 17 1/3 IP 12 H 1 R 6 BB 22 SO. Certainly a heck of a lot better than Turnbull. Yeah, he sucked for Baltimore but so has everyone this year (23 ERA+ over 12 1/3 IP). Eh, right now anything is worth a shot IMO.
greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#462060) #
Sure hope the Blue Jays don't miss the postseason by a game or two because of all these back-end rotation shenanigans. Although they were probably destined to lose this particular game if the offense was only going to produce one run.
Nigel - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#462061) #
Clase’s speed should make him a good defender in CF. Lack of speed is not the problem in CF. There is no reason to think he would be a better corner OF than CF. I agree that his bat hasn’t been materially worse than the other AAAA OF options.
Glevin - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#462062) #
Clase's speed is not issue. He gets bad jumps and takes bad routes. He's younger than the other AAA guys, but his minor league numbers show significantly less offensive ability than Roden or Robertson or Pinango or Schreck right now. Even this year where he had a 126 WRC+ it was due to a .438 BABIP. Would much rather be giving Roden abs as he's a much better prospect at this point. Clase needs to go down and play every day in CF and work on his D. If he can hack it at CF he has nice upside. If he can't play there, I don't think he's a regular major leaguer.
Nigel - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#462063) #
Or what Glevin said:)
greenfrog - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#462064) #
We’ve been spoiled watching Varsho and Straw cover CF this year. Watching Clase play the position has been a good reminder of this. Defense matters.
uglyone - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#462067) #
Speed can make up for bad jumps and routes in a corner slot, compared to other slower corner OF. So far in his brief career Clase has positive defensive metrics in the corners.


as for how his bat compares so far


MLB

Clase (22-23): 156pa, .296babip, 79wrc+
Roden (25-25): 103pa, .243babip, 62wrc+
Robertson (27-27): 12pa, .333babip, 17wrc+
Pinango: n/a
Schreck: n/a

AAA

Roden (24-25): 368pa, .351babip, 152wrc+
Schreck (24-24): 32pa, .200babip, 137wrc+
Robertson (26-27): 655pa, .306babip, 114wrc+
Clase (22-23): 532pa, .356babip, 105wrc+
Pinango (23-23): 65pa, .209babipm, 99wrc+

AA

Schreck (23-24): 317pa, .295babip, 152wrc+
Roden (23-24): 453pa, .316babip, 140wrc+
Pinango (22-23): 544pa, .298babip, 107wrc+
Clase (21-21): 489pa, .294babip, 105wrc+
Robertson (24-25): 752pa, .283babip, 105wrc+

A+

Clase (21-21): 106pa, .423babip, 197wrc+
Roden (23-23): 323pa, .353babip, 153wrc+
Schreck (23-23): 344pa, .274babip, 140wrc+
Pinango (19-22): 1161pa, .295babip, 101wrc+
Robertson (23-23): 248pa, .329babipm, 94wrc+

A

Robertson (24-24): 14pa, .600babip, 415wrc+
Clase (20-20): 499pa, .358babip, 119wrc+
Roden (22-22): 115pa, .253babip, 106wrc+
Schreck (22-22): 102pa, .291babip, 102wrc+
Pinango (19-19): 351pa, .317babip, 96wrc+
vw_fan17 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#462068) #
For some reason, watching Turnbull out there made me think of Jim Acker. Except with much worse results..
dalimon5 - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#462069) #
Jays are 26-19 since May 1st. .588 win percentage this month with no 5th starter and no Santander. I bet they're close to a .600 pace after this weekend. They should lose at least 65 games this season which means there is at least another 40 or so losses to go and if the pitching ain't blowing it early they're blowing it late and if that ain't happening then it means they couldn't muster enough offense. When they lose it will feel like death by paper cuts.

ayjackson - Friday, June 20 2025 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#462070) #
I'm having a hard time warming to Lukes and Clase and I'm pretty sure it's because i can't buy into the apparent pronunciation of their names.
pooks137 - Saturday, June 21 2025 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#462071) #
Gabriel Moreno sat out the series in Toronto with a hairline fracture in his right index finger that he'd been playing through for some time and was originally thought to just be bruised.

Sounds like something that could put him out for some time.
John Northey - Saturday, June 21 2025 @ 12:54 AM EDT (#462072) #
For progression the Jays need a top flight starter, someone to grab LF, and more relief help in that order imo.

Top flight starter: very, very hard to get, and always expensive - Sandy Alcantara is the only one likely on the market due to his flopping this year early on (post recovery from surgery) but has had 3 solid starts in a row (5/6 IP, 2/0/2 runs 15 K vs 3 BB, 2 HR in 17 IP vs Colorado, Pittsburgh, and Philly) but the 11 starts before those 3 were not good, leading to a 6.88 ERA overall, but a 4.46 xFIP which is right around Lucas level. Nothing to write home about, but if he is finally getting healthy he'd be a potential ace. He'd be very expensive, but who knows? Better to risk more on that than to get more 'meh' guys or scrap heap guys.

LF: Lukes has hit the best (114 wRC+) but if everyone is healthy then odds are LF will be Santander's spot, with Springer flip flopping DH/RF and Barger in RF most of the time. Varsho in CF of course. So in that case Lukes/Straw fill the bench with maybe Schneider or one of the other kids there too (Clase/Roden/Robertson/whoever). Only see a trade happening if someone with a 130+ wRC+ someone is available at a price the Jays are willing to pay which is very unlikely.

Bullpen: There are always decent relievers available mid-season. Trick is finding one or two who will stay solid for the rest of the year in a setup role. Might not be needed if health is on the Jays side (Hoffman-Garcia-Rodriguez-Little-Fluharty-Sandlin-Fisher-Schultz-Green gives us 9 decent guys before factoring in guys like Lauer who could move to the pen).

This trading season will be a massive challenge for the Jays to get anything that moves the needle. Unless someone unexpected waves the white flag high end starters aren't out there on the market.
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