October 30, 2010

Following are works of fiction. These, or something like them, might appear in a newspaper in a little under five years.

TORONTO - B.J.'s not a Blue Jay anymore.

In a move that has shocked baseball fans around the majors, B.J. Ryan, the closer for the Toronto Blue Jays, announced on Friday his decision to retire from baseball.

John Sickels provides insight on the minors through his fine minorleagueball.com website. Today, he turns his attention to how the pre-season Jay top 20 prospects fared in 2005.

For comparison, here is what the BB minor league crew had to say about Jay prospects 10-1, 20-11, and 30-21. It is important to bear in mind that John Sickels is reviewing the pre-season top 20 whereas the BB crew was deciding on a post-season top 30; the comparative rankings are less interesting than our respective comments.

Last time on the increasingly intermittent Photo of the Week we featured first-time Gold Glover Orlando Hudson; today we present you the mighty Vernon Wells:

Consider this a tack-on to Magpie’s excellent work from last week regarding the how the Blue Jays were historical in terms of their actual record vs. their Pythagorean record. It’s been postulated that part of the reason for this was that they scored a lot of meaningless runs, running up the score in games that were already out of reach. Another popular theory is that Toronto’s long-sequence-low-power offence was more prone to producing very small or very large run totals in any given game. This idea may be fueled (wrongly, in my opinion) by J.P. Ricciardi’s remarks near the end of the season about needing more hitters who could put the ball in the seats.

How much money do the Jays have left for 2006 if they have indeed signed B.J. Ryan for 5 years and $47M? Here’s my guess at the 25-man roster they’d go with if the season started today, and how much I think it would cost. Naturally it’s inconceivable that there will be no more trades or signings, but this is useful for getting an idea of how many dollars can realistically be added. Numbers in bold are for contracts that have already been signed and publicized.

The Blue Jays signed BJ Ryan to a contract worth $9.4/year. Which isn't a huge surprise.

The Blue Jays signed BJ Ryan to a contract for 5 years. Which is a huge surprise.

Or is it?

Bill Madden of the New York Daily News is reporting that the Blue Jays have signed LH reliever B.J. Ryan to a five year, $47 million contract.

Originally, Sportsnet published a denial from J.P. Ricciardi that the deal had been done, however they are now confirming the signing, but not the money.

The Carlos Delgado trade has been finalized. The Jim Thome trade awaits medical concurrence and the Bud Selig seal of approval. Frank Thomas is a free agent and quite possibly headed for a new home. But, Jeff Bagwell remains in Houston.

So, on this frigid Friday, what is happening in the world of baseball?

"Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in."

So there I was, thinking my work was done. I could put the 2005 Blue Jays aside, polish off my piece on the 1920 Season (appearing December 1 at a Batter's Box near you!), and get cracking at last on the long-delayed Lobby of Numbers.

And then Mike Green, pondering the eternal mystery of the Blue Jays W-L record in relation to their runs scored and allowed, made a most excellent suggestion:

All these deals, Beckett to Boston, Delgado to the Mets, await a doctor's concurrence. The Winter Meetings are about 2 weeks away, and the moves are beginning to be made. So, Bauxites, what do you think?

Here we look at what the Blue Jays did in those 47 games decided by a single run. Seeing as how they lost 31 of these games, there are a lot of painful memories in here. Viewer Discretion Advised. But it's always a good day when I get to be the Dude's Advocate!

We'll have a quick recap of all 47 games, data tables of how the hitters and pitchers performed, and a few random observations.

Maybe I've been watching too much "CSI" (Las Vegas, if you must know), but I'm treating you to yet another forensic examination of the evidence left behind by the 2005 Blue Jays.

In the midst of the weekend's free-form discussion, Bauxite Grasshopper spoke out against trading future stars for instant help, following the principle that the Blue Jays aren't going to win the World Series in 2006.

I'm not picking on you, Grasshopper - I think it's probably a widespread assumption.

Should it be?

Giving most major league teams millions of dollars to play with and a list of available free agents is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys. (Thank you, P.J. O'Rourke.)

So the madness is beginning...

Imagine you were a scout for a major league team last winter and your general manager calls you to ask about Josh Towers. Your team has a chance to trade for Towers and the GM wants to know what you think. You say Towers is a #5 pitcher and he is not even guaranteed a rotation spot with the Jays in 2005, you suggest to the GM that he should turn down the deal. Next day the GM is back on the phone, the Jays have sweetened the deal and now they are ready to give up Alex Rios. You tell the GM to jump at the deal, you saw Rios at New Haven in 2003 and you think he is primed for a breakout season. Fast forward to today, do you still have a job?

If you want to be a scout you better have an opinion and you better be right more than you are wrong or you could be facing the wrath of your GM, if you are still working for him.